Why Syria Matters to You

The Ramifications of the Stunning Changes in Syria are Enormous and Global

It has been a wild few days in the world. Some thoughts:

• The fall of the Assad regime in Syria is a deeply significant event. We can say that without knowing for sure where it will lead because of what it ends and what it changes not only about the Middle East but about geopolitics globally.

• The Assad regime brutally abused and exploited the people of Syria for more than fifty years. Bashar al Assad who reportedly fled the country and has been given asylum by Russia was a monster and a war criminal. Since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War almost a decade and a half ago, he is directly responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of his own people and the unjust imprisonment, torture and suffering of thousands more. The inaction of the world including the United States when he began using chemical weapons against his own people is an appalling failure, a stain on the Obama foreign policy legacy and on that of the many other world leaders who sat on their hands. The people of Syria, all of whom well understand the uncertainty that awaits the country, understandably celebrate his defeat and departure. We should as well.

• The rebels that seized the country in lightning fashion were led by a group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). They were originally affiliated with Al Qaeda but in recent years have sought to modify their image with a more inclusive stance and by apparently rejecting some extremist positions. That said, we cannot be sure whether these changes are real or cosmetic or how well they will be able to maintain control over whatever Syria emerges from this phase of the country’s existence. They have spoken of “freeing” the Syrian people. Whether that results in some more democratic model for the country or a new form of tyranny is uncertain. There is reason to be both hopeful and cautious.

• Here’s what we do know, though. The defeat of Assad is a defeat for his sponsors and protectors. Most importantly, that means Iran. The Iranians must be reeling having suffered a massive defeat of the network of proxies and allies that they have been carefully cultivating for years. Hamas, Hezbollah and now the Assad government were the three strongest components of that network and Iran’s ability to project its influence throughout the region is greatly diminished. How they react will be a key element to look for in the months ahead. Will they grow more aggressively defensive (pushing ahead with their nuclear weapons program) or will the changes produce internal change within Iran? Whatever happens, for now, Iran’s power is nothing like it was or at least appeared to be just a few months ago.

• Russia to has suffered a setback. They were protectors and enablers of Assad. But clearly, they were unable to protect him (or even help him prepare for the revolution that unseated him.) Russia’s reputation as a global power has suffered another setback. They invaded a much weaker neighbor, Ukraine, and have effectively been held to a draw—but a very very costly draw that has obliterated the capacity of their army. They sought recently to meddle in the Romanian elections and because their plot was uncovered, the elections were annulled. The people of Georgia have taken to the streets in massive numbers to protest the policy’s of their pro-Russia, Russian-supported government. NATO is bigger than ever and more united (for now). And now not only has Assad fallen but Russia’s most potent ally in the Middle East, Iran is reeling. For now, the new powers in Syria are promising hands off Russian bases in that country. But, no one is looking at Russia in quite the same way they did a couple years ago.

• The only place Russia has made notable gains recently is with the election of Donald Trump as president here in the U.S. He was clearly Russia’s choice and once again, this weekend, he reiterated his desire to wind down U.S. support for Ukraine, force a negotiation and pursue policies with NATO that could once again imperil America’s leadership role in the world’s most important alliance. That said, it is unclear what the full impact of the transition to Trump will be. There are a number of people in his own party who are inclined to continue support for Ukraine and others who are tougher on Putin and it only takes a few Republicans to shift away from the party to change the calculus on Capitol Hill. Further, the Europeans are currently adjusting to the reality of Trump but many among them are fully capable of charting a course independent of the US and they are increasingly inclined to do so. Trump’s attempt to bully NATO may result in diminished US leverage over our closest allies which will be frustrating for him but also may produce greater support for Ukraine and great unity in the face of Russian threats—particularly given Russia’s recent setbacks.

• Speaking of Trump, his nominee to head the U.S. intelligence community Tulsi Gabbard, had to be watching videos of Assad regime files being unearthed by the rebels with real apprehension. She was notoriously pro-Assad, spread Assad propaganda (including the absurd and offensive story that Syrians gassed themselves rather than Assad doing it), and recent events in Syria have thrown her bizarre stance with regard to that country into the spotlight. At just the wrong moment for her considering her upcoming confirmation hearings. The concerns about her Assad ties and her parroting Russian propaganda with regard to Ukraine have led for a move to have her confirmation hearings conducted in secret session so sensitive issues could be broached. This is not good news for her.

For all the above reasons, the changes in Syria are momentous and of direct importance to all of us here in the United States.