What the Gaza Deal Is...and What it is Not

Any respite from war and return of hostages is good...but there is still no lasting solution in sight.

A cease fire in Gaza is better than no ceasefire. Getting some hostages back is better than getting none back. Partial Israeli withdrawal is better than no withdrawal. More humanitarian aid is better than less humanitarian aid.

Even if Bibi dragged his feet until Trump was almost init's better than him never relenting. Trump's team shouldn't have been involved until he took office, Trump shouldn't have been the one to break the news, but according to all reports (including from within the administration) they helped and we should be grateful for that.

Biden team pushed for this long and hard and deserves credit for that even if their reluctance to pressure Israel on its excesses and abuses in Gaza has been the biggest stain on the administration's foreign policy record. The hard parts of this deal are left to the future.

Israel will violate the ceasefire as it wishes. There is not yet an alternative to Hamas. There is no real plan for lasting security and peacekeeping. There will be massive pressure from the Israeli right to start settlements in Gaza and eventually, if the US is willing to go along with it, annexations in Gaza to go with more annexations in the W bank.

Rebuilding will not take place in a meaningful way for the foreseeable future. The people of Gaza will continue to suffer and die. They will continue to be deprived of their human rights and their right to self-determination. The death toll of 50-75,000, most of whom were innocents, can't be undone.

It is important to see this deal for what it is and for what it is not. It is important to recognize that it resolves very little, reverses very little damage, leaves virtually every big question unanswered. Progress is better than no progress. But neither peace nor justice are much closer at all.

The key remaining questions are:

• Will Israel ratify the deal? (The answer is probably yes despite a very hostile statement about the deal from Bezalel Smotrich, a leader of the Israeli right.)

• Will the cease fire hold? (The answer is no one knows. Israelis and what remains of Hamas will be in close proximity and tensions will continue to run high. Any violation could lead to a renewal of much more extensive hostilities.)

• Will Phase II of the deal ever be implemented. (President Biden spoke as though subsequent stages of the deal in which a lasting peace is achieved were likely to happen. They are not for the reasons sketched out above.)

• What will the bigger game be for Trump and for Netanyahu? War with Iran? Bibi may want it but many other countries in the region close to Trump will not. Will a deal between Israel and the Saudis become a central goal again? More likely.

• What will become of the people of Palestine and the Palestinian state that is the essential prerequisite to peace in the region? There will be more suffering. There will be more frustration. This wound will remain open for a long time to come.

We did a great discussion on this with former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas and journalist Noga Tarnopolsky on The DSR Podcast just now (Wednesday afternoon minutes after the deal was announced). You can find it at The DSR Network and I encourage you to do so. I’ll post a direct link to the podcast when I have it.