Trump is Stumbling Toward Disaster

In Iran...but not just in Iran

There’s a lot going on in the world right now and I want to address it.

First, I’ve written and said a bunch about recent events and their implications elsewhere. For example…

I did a piece in the New Republic about why all of us are at much greater risk today than we were the day Trump was sworn in.

I did a piece at The Daily Beast on how Trump is seeking to punish any American who doesn’t support his views or his political movement. He’s penalizing millions for being Democrats, Independents or simply Republicans with a conscience.

I also just did a piece yesterday at The Daily Beast on the tenth anniversary of Trump’s descent from the tacky bowels of Trump Tower into our political lives…and on where that descent has taken us.

If you don’t have a Daily Beast subscription you may not be able to read these last two, but if you do, I hope you’ll give them a look.

Of course, I also do a passel of podcasts each week and you can find them at our DSR Network homepage or wherever you get your podcasts or even on YouTube at our growing YouTube channel.

I’ve also done a bunch of other media but, enough’s enough with the links and the schlepping all over the Internet.

Let me address briefly just a few things on my mind today:

• The Israel-Iran conflict is profoundly dangerous and vastly more complicated than most reports on it would suggest. The G7 had it wrong when it supported Israel’s right of “self-defense” against Iran. Because as much as we may condemn the actions of the regime in the Islamic Republic and feel its government is a threat to the stability of the region, Israel started this war. Furthermore, Israel started it not for the reason it gave—the imminent threat posed by the Iranian nuclear program. That threat has existed for many years and U.S. intelligence did not feel Iran had made any notable new strides recently. Rather, Netanyahu decided to strike for three reasons. 1.) He remains in political jeopardy and war has proven an effective means of helping him to stay in power. 2.) Rather than fearing an Iranian breakthrough on nukes, he feared one on a potential nuclear deal. He opposed the one negotiated under Obama. He goaded Trump into abandoning it. And he was deeply troubled that Trump was now advocating re-entering just such an agreement. 3.) He has made the conflict between Israel and Iran a centerpiece of his politics throughout his career. He is Ahab. It is his Great White Whale. That doesn’t mean Iran does not pose a great risk to Israel. That does not mean that Netanyahu did not enhance the stability of the region with his recent blows against Hezbollah and Hamas or the role he played in helping trigger the collapse of the Assad regime. But it does mean that if we are going to evaluate this situation properly, we need to be honest about the proximate cause of the crisis.

• Further, as the U.S. contemplates entering the war—and my money is on it doing so unless a rabbit-out-of-a-hat deal can be achieved rapidly—we ought to be asking a couple questions which I fear we are not. The first is: What is achievable by such a war? The second is: What outcomes are in our national interest? If destroying Iran’s nuclear program is not the objective—and recent strikes suggest it is not—then is whatever the broader objective might be actually possible. Is regime change possible? If it is, is guiding the post-regime outcome in a direction that serves the region, Israel, the U.S. and the people of Iran possible? Given the U.S. history with regime change and nation building, I would be very cautious about undertaking such a conflict. We’re just not good at either. (Many in MAGA not only realize this but voted for Trump because they thought he would avoid going down this road again and they are not happy with the recent turn of events. If they are not and Americans are as deeply opposed to entering such a war as current polls suggest, then will there be sufficient political will in the U.S. to undertake the rigors of such a conflict in ways that can produce the outcomes we seek?

• Most nuclear experts think the best we can do is set back the Iranian nuclear program months. Many political experts warn that not only is regime change difficult but that getting a successor regime that is pro-Israel or warmer to the West or anti-nuke is not guaranteed. They remind us that it was the Shah and not an ayatollah who launched the nuclear program.

• Further, as we assess this, it should be remembered that Israel has not fought a major war against another nation state in over fifty years. Iran is a nation of 90 million people with 5000 years of history. If they choose to go to ground and fight a protracted war, it could become very difficult for Israel. Especially if U.S. public support grows weaker.

• Most likely is that the U.S. agrees to use its bunker buster munitions to go after deeply buried Iranian nuclear targets (Fordow) in the hopes that the shock and awe (remember them?) push the Iranians to some kind of negotiated settlement. Why they would enter a deal with the U.S. or Israel or any group of powers given the recent history of such deals remains a good and open question.

• Trump was not the mastermind of this deal. He is not playing 4D chess with the Iranians. He was against Israeli action and they took it anyway—possibly betting correctly that Trump would rather pretend to own it than to look as weak with them as he really is. Our president is doing what he always does here, setting aside or ignoring altogether US national interests in order to focus on what is most important to him which is his reputation, how he looks, whether he can save face and own a victory (whether he had anything to do with it or not).

• Trump said he left the G7 meeting because he had to attend to important Iran-Israel business. Nonsense. He could’ve handle that from Canada. He left because he was isolated and alone at the summit, a source of ridicule and derision from his peers. Especially after he made his sniveling pitch for Putin to join the group even as Putin was attacking more civilians in Ukraine brutally. But doing Putin’s errands was the job he was assigned and when it was done he headed home in a snit. He does not like our allies. They do not like him. It makes him one of the weakest leaders in our history or, as I wrote in a different Daily Beast piece a few days ago, the most impotent president in our modern history.

• It didn’t help matters that Trump’s triumphal birthday parade was a bust. He is having a bad week. Actually, he’s having a bad presidency. No deal in Ukraine. No deal in Gaza. No deal with Iran. No 90 deals in 90 days. His one signature piece of legislation perhaps the most unpopular big such piece in memory (according to the polls…and for good reason). Stephen Miller’s immigration crackdown is hugely unpopular too. Trump’s flip flops on trade on Iran policy or, more recently, on whether ICE would go after agriculture and hospitality industries make him look weak. So too does the fact that his wife obviously hates him. Elon has dumped him. He’s a greedy crook and its apparent for the all the world to see. He’s getting old. His cabinet is full of true dimwits from Hegseth to RFK, Jr. and being president doesn’t seem fun anymore. At least that’s my sense from people I know with up close perspective on the president and the White House. He’s unhappy. He wishes he were playing golf.

More tomorrow on what I see as some looming issues (with special bonus analysis for paying members so if you’re not a paid subscriber, now would be a great time to become one.)

Also: Coming soon…live streaming interviews with newsmakers right here at Need to Know. More on that early next week.