Allan Lichtman has a system of thirteen-points that assesses the situation of the United States and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to win.
The keys include whether:
◾ The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
◾ The sitting president is running for reelection.
◾ The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
◾ There is a third-party challenger.
◾ The short-term economy is strong.
◾ The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
◾ The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
◾ There is sustained social unrest during the term.
◾ The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic.
◾ The challenger is uncharismatic.
◾ The incumbent is charismatic.
◾ The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
◾ The White House party has foreign policy success.
Eight of the keys above are in favor of Harris, while three are in favor of Trump.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” he said in the video. “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
That leaves Harris winning the White House, he said. “At least that's my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore and that only due to the Supreme Court ruling in favor of Bush.
Lichtman argues that the system’s reliability proves that American voters select their next president according to how well the country was governed in the preceding four years and that election campaigns have little, if any, meaningful effect on American voters. If American voters are satisfied with the governance of the country, they will re-elect the president or elect their party's nominee, but if they are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the challenging party.
Thank you again for the great thoughts. It has been bugging me too that so much reporting says “ she baited him”. I’m sorry are we responsible for Trump’s rice paper thin skin and his gigantic, adolescent ego the size of Jupiter? There is an undercurrent of the right wing “nasty woman” meme in this reporting. Another example of how this loser is never held responsible for anything.
Sure hope we can deliver an unmistakable message on November 5; GO AWAY!
''she’s the one who is brilliant, eloquent, qualified, strong and of excellent character. The other option is a putrescent boil on the ass of humanity.''
- NOW I know why You write and now I know why I read with joy! thank you David R.
Its
Wonderful commentary today, David! I will share it!
Great read.
This is absolutely the finest assessment of The Debate that I have read or watched. Brilliant insights and commentary, Sir. Thank you so much. 😊
A good example of what Good leaders do… they talk to people not to the opponent…
Allan Lichtman has a system of thirteen-points that assesses the situation of the United States and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to win.
The keys include whether:
◾ The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
◾ The sitting president is running for reelection.
◾ The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
◾ There is a third-party challenger.
◾ The short-term economy is strong.
◾ The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
◾ The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
◾ There is sustained social unrest during the term.
◾ The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic.
◾ The challenger is uncharismatic.
◾ The incumbent is charismatic.
◾ The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
◾ The White House party has foreign policy success.
Eight of the keys above are in favor of Harris, while three are in favor of Trump.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” he said in the video. “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
That leaves Harris winning the White House, he said. “At least that's my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore and that only due to the Supreme Court ruling in favor of Bush.
Lichtman argues that the system’s reliability proves that American voters select their next president according to how well the country was governed in the preceding four years and that election campaigns have little, if any, meaningful effect on American voters. If American voters are satisfied with the governance of the country, they will re-elect the president or elect their party's nominee, but if they are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the challenging party.
Thank you again for the great thoughts. It has been bugging me too that so much reporting says “ she baited him”. I’m sorry are we responsible for Trump’s rice paper thin skin and his gigantic, adolescent ego the size of Jupiter? There is an undercurrent of the right wing “nasty woman” meme in this reporting. Another example of how this loser is never held responsible for anything.
Sure hope we can deliver an unmistakable message on November 5; GO AWAY!
Thank you David Rothkoph for this brilliant and humorous piece.
''she’s the one who is brilliant, eloquent, qualified, strong and of excellent character. The other option is a putrescent boil on the ass of humanity.''
- NOW I know why You write and now I know why I read with joy! thank you David R.
Let's hope we see Kamala rocketing up in the polls over the next few days.