As I write this on the evening of Sunday, November 10, it is already tomorrow in most of the world. Unfortunately, following the events of the past week, the question is whether we are still only hours behind most of them or whether the clock has already begun to spin the other way for us.
A party that has as its goal in many key areas of our lives setting us back decades and in some cases even centuries has scored a solid—if less spectacular than commonly described—victory in our recent elections. But their work at turning back the clock began long ago. And they have achieved some remarkable “victories.” Overturning Roe v. Wade set women’s rights back half a century. An earlier Supreme Court decision, Shelby County v. Holder, set us back even further on voting rights.
And listening to Donald Trump and some of those around him, you get the impression those reversals are nothing compared to their longer term goals. They embrace the politics of the 1930s in Europe and of the 1860s in the American South. They envision a role for women in which their status far predates the 19th Amendment and would have women play little more than the role of breed mares for a male dominated society.
Affirmative action? Gone. The protections past generations enjoyed in terms of government regulations ensuring clean water or air or even rational gun safety laws, gone. The social advances made by minorities in our society including the LGBTQ+ community gone or in their crosshairs.
Trump has threatened to use 18th Century laws against undocumented immigrants. (He and his team have threatened to use similar approaches against the documented, even against birthright citizens.) On January 6, 2021, Trump and his followers sought to overturn almost 250 years of the peaceful transfer of power between our leaders. His flirtation with “suspending the Constitution” and being a “dictator from day one” will send us back to the type of tyrannical rule that was the reason we broke away from the British monarchy during the American Revolution.
Rejecting science takes us back further. Rejecting truth sends us hurtling backwards out of the history of civilized societies.
That’s a lot to take in in less than a week. But of course, perhaps even more shocking is the fact that none of it is new. Many of these ideas have been espoused by the right since long before Trump entered political life. We have known the nature of this regressive movement for decades. Indeed, the impulse to go backwards has been with our society and virtually all others forever. The thing that distinguishes successful societies is the ability to overcome the desire of many to go back to an earlier time that nostalgia or faded memories have burnished beyond any resemblance to reality or to a place that just seems more familiar and less unsettling that the world promised by progress.
American history is the story of the forces of innovation and positive change triumphing over the resistance of those who want us to live like prior generations.
Yes, that’s right and worth remembering. As tough as the moment in which we live may seem, our society has been here before. Our revolution was fought over the tension between the past and the future. So was the American Civil War. So were 20th Century battles against those who would reverse democratic progress or those who sought to preserve or reimpose the Colonial Era or those who wanted to stop the the civil rights or women’s empowerment movements in the tracks.
Furthermore, as we are on the eve of Veteran’s Day, it is also instructive to remember that generations before ours sacrificed everything to stand up to the forces of regression, ignorance, intolerance and hatred.
Thus far, that has not been asked of us. This past week, the United States of America appeared to fail one of history’s tests. But there have always been setbacks. The forces that eked out a victory on Tuesday (by roughly 1.5 percent of the total electorate) have been regularly defeated in our recent past—in 2018, 2020, and 2022. It is not that the majority of Americans want to go backwards. It is that a bare majority of Americans who voted last Tuesday did….and had a fraction more of those who turned out in 2020 done the same this time around, Trump would have been defeated.
Further, although Trump and the right won the White House and the Senate (and seem likely to win the House), they lost many crucial battles away. In 7 out of 10 states, abortion rights were enshrined in state laws. The defeat of the abortion measure in Florida was despite the fact that a very substantial majority of Floridians voted in favor of it. Many progressive and centrist Democratic leaders won significant victories.
While there have been an overabundance of hot takes as to why Trump edged out the Democrats, most have been symptoms of post-election hyperventilation. No, Americans did not vote to reject democracy. No, Trump did not win a massive victory or anything like a real mandate in a country that has an electorate that is, at best from his perspective, evenly divided. In fact, Kamala Harris ran a remarkable campaign on a very truncated schedule and was arguably within weeks of reversing the anti-incumbency tide worldwide and winning the election.
I mention the anti-incumbency tide because it seems to me that like COVID and the inflation and economic trends that followed it, anti-incumbent feeling has been a global phenomenon. In virtually every major developed economy that had an election this year, the party in power lost. They lost because the scarring of COVID and its aftermath has been hard to cope with. It led to Trump’s defeat in 2020 and to Harris’ in 2024. If there are global trends like that, powerful ones that have sweeping impacts, we should not dismiss their impact here lightly.
But, having said that, we know a few things. First, we know that Trump can’t run again for reelection. He might want to. But the Constitution says no and it is virtually impossible these days to amend the Constitution. Second, we also know that Trump like many presidents, cares more about himself than his legacy. It is unlikely he will work hard on behalf of his successor no matter who it is. Third, we know that many of the worst things Trump promised last time he was unable to achieve. The wall with Mexico or getting Mexico to pay for it come to mind. Pulling out of NATO and ending Obamacare and using the presidency to defeat Joe Biden or cling to power are also examples. There are hundreds. And while Trump and those around him have learned from their experience, many of their current plans will also come a cropper.
Trump may try to round up ten million Americans and what he does may well be terrible and something we should resist vigorously. But it is also logistically virtually impossible, would cause massive economic and market upsets, will be resisted by blue state governors and, should he try to enlist the military, very likely by the military’s leadership. Elon Musk may want to cut one third of the federal budget but it is not up to the executive branch. It is up to the Congress. And many of those budget dollars will go to the districts of representatives and senators who will be seeking re-election. They will protect their own interests. Further, many of those Elon may want to fire work in those districts. Same self-interested reaction from GOP officials can be expected.
Retribution against enemies may come. And again, it should be vigorously opposed by all who care about our system of government. But it is important to remember, of the tens of thousands of cases in the US court system, only about 150 a year make it to the Supreme Court. And many courts have judges atop them who are either appointed by Democrats or who are responsible jurists and so many of the worst plans of Trump and his team may be foiled.
Should we therefore relax? Of course, not. But, we should take a deep breath. And then we should prepare for what is coming, focus on the greatest threats and in particular on those over which we as voters or influencers or officials or lawyers or judges or leaders or dedicated members of the rank and file of organizations from unions to the civil service have influence. And then we should figure out what leverage we have. Alone. Together. Through our organizations. By lifting our voices.
We should resist the temptation to borrow trouble, freak out, or get worked up over things that will not happen. We should work together with trusted family and friends and colleagues and members of our social and professional networks to share intelligence and analysis and plans of action. And we should remember that history is on our side, at least half and very likely a majority of Americans are on our side, that the one thing that changes the view of “low-information voters” is when they can’t ignore the facts any longer, and that, despite our worst fears, it is more than likely that we will have our chance to begin to seek redress through functioning elements of our system of government soon.
Is it possible Trump might end democracy? Yes. And we must be vigilant. But can he do it quickly? Probably not as quickly as he would like. Probably not as sweepingly as he would like. If I had to bet, I would bet that while he and Elon and the oligarchs who are the heart of his coalition would like there not to be free and fair midterm elections, I bet there will be. Again, we must fight any effort to stop this tooth and nail. But, if there are such elections and history holds true to form, Democrats will almost certainly win the House in 2026 and Hakeem Jeffries will become the next Speaker of the House.
Further, in blue states, a coalition of new leaders will step to the forefront of the Democratic Party. Right now we can imagine that will include Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and others. They will be joined by a variety of crucial emerging voices like Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Jasmine Crockett, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and perhaps newly established, compelling voices like Vice President Kamala Harris. The leadership void within the Democratic Party, the opposition party in the U.S., will not remain for long. Indeed, I predict that those who most effectively push back on Trump and MAGA’s most threatening initiatives will be elevated to positions of national prominence.
And…in 2028…if we resist the worst and maintain our institutions…it is just as likely that Trump and MAGA, given their previous track records, will be in a weak position and that once again, as has happened so often during this century in the U.S. and elsewhere, the appetite of the American people will be for change.
We are not guaranteed that outcome. But we can and must work to ensure it takes place. Beginning now.
So… Breathe. Prepare. And then resist.
The American story is not over yet. Indeed, we still have the power to ensure that its best chapters lie ahead of us and that once again, the advocates for turning back the clock will be defeated by the inevitability of the dawn.
So this, I guess, is wishful thinking on my part, but would someone please explain to me why the DoJ cannot step in and enforce the 14th Amendment: namely, that anyone who has taken part in an insurrection against the US is barred from holding office?
I mean, we went through the charade of having the Supreme Court decide that the 14th Amendment didn't preclude any insurrectionist from "running" for office. However, the wording is clear and explicit in barring insurrectionists. Period.
Or have we already jettisoned the Constitution?
Your final line, “... the advocates for turning back the block will be defeated by the inevitably of the dawn,” may be the most sane - and beautifully written - statement of the week. Thank you, David, for your reason, insights and way with words.