Why I Feel Optimistic About America

No, Really, I Do...and You're Probably Part of the Reason

The next few years will be difficult for many Americans. Perhaps they will be very difficult. But, while that seems clear, there are also many reasons to be optimistic about America’s future.

Here are some of my reasons:

• We have been through a great deal as a country. Wars. Social upheaval. Corrupt governments. Bad leaders. We’ve not only survived it all, we have emerged stronger for it.

• Many of those we perceive as threats today are not competent or capable of achieving their goals. Their past history shows this. The unrealistic nature of their goals supports this thesis.

• The majority of our electorate remain on the side of democracy, our institutions, and our values. Polls suggest support for MAGA has a hard ceiling and support for many of there most extreme ideas is far below that ceiling.

• The MAGA plan contains the seeds of the movement’s destruction. Tariffs will raise prices, hurt businesses, disrupt our supply chains, and weaken us as a nation vs. our competitors. Tax cuts for the rich will exacerbate inequality and, especially if combined with cuts in vital programs and services serving millions of Americans will produce deep resentment. Supporting our enemies and undermining our allies will put our national security at risk. Stripping away the rights of Americans—whether voters, or women, or members of the LGBTQ+ communities or people of color or of people who simply seek to exercise their right to free expression—will alienate those groups. We’ve seen this movie before. The last time Trump was president, America voted him out despite his having all the advantages of incumbency. This time his agenda is worse, he is older, his team will be less competent (because he values loyalty over experience or judgment) and he is not running for re-election and, being a narcissist, he will not care what comes after him.

• As I wrote yesterday, I believe that secular trends—midterms going to the opposition party, voter preferences not for incumbents but challengers—will work to the advantage of Democrats going forward.

• When I speak to leading Democrats as I have been since the election, the results are forcing a very healthy reappraisal of our policy priorities, our party apparatus, our strategy and tactics, the way we connect with voters, the way we communicate. I believe this election will see a changing of the guard in the Democratic Party in terms of generations, leaders and in terms of the people behind the campaigns. No more big focus on television. Greater skepticism of old school consultants. Reappraisal of polling and outreach techniques. More focus on new media, relationship-centric approaches, connecting with our base, connecting with average Americans.

• Most importantly, what I see in the eyes of the political leaders, activists, and rank and file Democrats with whom I speak is a commitment to succeed going forward—whether that means at resistance or in the midterm elections or in 2028. I’m not seeing a demoralized party. I’m seeing honest and self-aware introspection. I’m seeing new leaders who are gaining traction. I’m seeing energy and a real sense of mission. Most importantly, where I could be seeing defeatism, I’m seeing resilience and commitment and a willingness to continue to fight ultilizing whatever legal means and methods available to us for what we believe in.

• I’m certain there will be on-going efforts to give the MAGA GOP more than just the usual advantages of incumbency in elections that lie ahead. We must be vigilant re: our democratic institutions. But there are enough strong institutions and people who care about them to make me skeptical that democracy can be lost between now and 2026. And I believe if Dems can reclaim the House that will provide a powerful check against those who would pervert or attack our electoral institutions.

• As I have also noted in the past on a host of issues, even if SCOTUS and the Senate and the House and the White House are in the hands of the GOP, other checks remain that will help keep the country intact and the chances for reversal of the reuslts of the last election high. These include mayors, governors, our allies, markets, the business community, some in the media, activist groups, citizens taking collective action, and even Republicans who will seek to slow or oppose MAGA plans when they realize they are not in the interests of their constituents. (Remember, the vast majority of federal disbursements to the states go to red states. They will therefore lose disproportionately should draconian cuts to programs be implemented as promised by Trump.)

You may think this is wishful thinking. And yes, I know, I was sure that Vice President Harris would win on November 5. I was hopeful about those results. So discount my point of view if you feel so inclined. But, I have been actively reaching out to many across the country in the two weeks since the election. I have been testing the above ideas with them. Some of these ideas, I have gotten from them. I am also a historian of politics and power in the U.S. (and around the world) and everything I know and read suggests that in the end, progress triumphs. I do understand that often it comes after real hardship. But for the reasons described above, I think we can forestall much of hardship we fear or that some around the new administration have planned. Further, contrary to conventional wisdom, I believe that there will again be—despite the best efforts of many associated with the transition—qualified well-intentioned people in many key jobs in the new government. The guardrails will be reduced but they will not disappear altogether.

I expect tough times. Some tougher than many of us have ever seen.

But I also expect that in the end, the good within the American people and many of our leaders…and indeed, even where it is hard to measure intentions, the simple self-interests of the American people…will ultimately ensure that whatever setbacks we endure will be contained and ultimately reversed. I truly believe that the four years ahead will be the end of MAGA…often at the hands of MAGA…and that the fact and nature of the incoming leadership of the new administration will ultimately serve to ensure that they are once and for all rejected by America’s voters, one way or another, and that the will of the people (again, one way or another) will be our salvation.