What Will the World Look Like in Four Years?

It Could Look Very Different Indeed...and Not in a Good Way

There’s a lot of focus on the beginning of the new Trump Administration. That’s only natural. But let’s take a few moments to consider what the world might look like in four years. In tomorrow’s post, we’ll consider how America might be left, post-Trump 2.0.

Naturally, there are no sure things in geopolitics. In fact, there are so many moving parts to world affairs that trying to make accurate predictions is the kind of thing we live to special analysts in the intelligence community who have been trained to live with being wrong most of the time.

Nonetheless, we can make a few educated guesses as to what announced and likely Trump policies might result in. If you wish, you may attach this post to your refrigerator with a magnet and periodically check on it to see how accurate it was (or was not.) However, I’m not sketching out this scenario with primary intention or expectation of being accurate. Rather, I am doing it to help frame the stakes for many of the policies being discussed and to drive home the message that we need to keep our eye on more than just our own politics. There are big issues at stake here.

Here are a few things that seem reasonable to expect or at least prepare for:

• Trump will start off saber-rattling about imposing big tariffs on China. His team of China hawks will shout from the rooftops that they are out for blood. But in the end, the tariffs will not be as advertised. That is because sweeping high-tariffs would be hugely inflationary, job-killers and terrible for many U.S. businesses. They would also produce massive Chinese retaliation. This might be particularly uncomfortable for people like Elon Musk and other Trump backers. Further, it is likely to be very negatively viewed by markets. (Markets and business will prove to be major checks on Trump’s plans even when the Madisonian checks and balances contained in the Constitution have been neutered by the U.S. politics of the moment.) Instead, what will happen is that the U.S. will announce smaller tariffs and say that they are just Phase I of a series of planned escalating tariffs that will be imposed if the Chinese do not negotiate with us in good faith. Which China will do in ways that postpone the imposition of further tariffs.

• Further, our allies will not go along with us on the tariffs. They want to maintain good relations with China for economic reasons. Trump and his team will not be happy with this. But since they are likely to pull the rug out from NATO and our European allies in Ukraine and reach an impasse with them over whether Ukraine should be accorded NATO membership, the trans-Atlantic relationship will cool. Trump doesn’t mind. He wanted out of NATO anyway, the last time around

  The U.S. will likely continue its zero sum approach to competing with China in the trade in critical technologies, notably AI, quantum, etc. This continuation of Biden-era policies will not work much better for the new administration. The tech edge it gives the U.S. will be a couple of years, not the decade promised. Further, forcing countries around the world to choose us or them will produce a predictable result: many of the poorer countries that cannot afford our tech but do not want to be left out of the AI revolution will choose their companies. There are plenty of buyers in the world who’ll be happy with a 75% as good option that costs less and comes with fewer strings and Chinese influence will grow. Also some rich countries will want to maintain good relations with the Chinese and so will try to have it both ways. (Which is, no matter how it may make you feel, in their national interest.) (Remember…I’m not advocating these outcomes. I’m just suggesting they are possibilities we need to consider.)