Trump's Five Big Unspoken Iran War Problems

For a story that's in the news daily, there are some key points that are often missed...

Remember the Iran War ceasefire? Remember the president celebrating the opening of the Strait of Hormuz? Remember having destroyed Iran’s missile launcher capabilities? Having put in place a new regime? Having “obliterated” their nuclear program?

Those were the days, my friend. We thought they’d never end.

But they did. Sometimes in mere moments (the open strait), sometimes in days (the ceasefire), sometimes as intelligence reports filtered out in just weeks.

From the start, Donald Trump’s Iran war has not gone according to plan. Which is saying something since there was never really a plan in the first place. Trump’s whole approach was shoot first, figure out how to explain it later. That’s worked for him in the past. It is standard operating procedure for con artists everywhere.

The problem for Trump has been that this war has unleashed forces and revealed realities that not only came as a surprise to him (because he ignored history and expert advice) but frankly, that he still does not fully understand.

That is why despite Trump desperately wanting this war to be over, he is finding that getting out of it is not as easy as burying your dead ex-wife in a golf course or hiring judges and appointing Justice Department officials to bury your crimes.

Here are five of the big reasons Trump is having such a problem getting this war to end—reasons that do not get the coverage or discussion they deserve in what we gently refer to around these parts as “the legacy media.” What complicates all of them is that they each signal even greater problems to come once this war is over.

• Iran Knows a Secret—With all Trump’s talk about Iran having no cards to play in this negotiation or about him holding all the cards (and despite the good SNL joke about Iran actually holding a strait), Iran has what might be called a trump card in the negotiations. It probably shouldn’t be called a trump card because it is actually potent. You see they know something that is a game-changer no matter what kind of card game you are playing, no matter what the stakes. Iran knows that Trump wants the war over much more than they do. Make no mistake, no country wants to endure the pummeling the U.S. and Israeli militaries have inflicted on Iran. Surely, the country’s leaders and its people, often deeply divided on issues and on their vision for the best interests of the nation, would like to end the dying and suffering and start to rebuild their country. But as deep-seated as that desire may be, the Iranians realize that, contrary to Trump’s statements and objectives, this war is not existential for them, but it may well be for Trump’s MAGA movement and his own future prospects in the U.S.. The latest polls show that two thirds of Americans disapprove of the war. The remaining third are probably lying or did not understand the question. Among all the unpopular things Trump has done, this war is not only among those with the least support, it also comes at a very bad time for Trump politically. It is pushing up prices in the months before an election. It is costing billions when vital services are being cut to millions of Americans. Trump’s conduct has been erratic on the best of days and psychotic the rest of the time. This underscores the obvious fact that he is in a state of physical and mental free fall to go along with his plummeting political fortunes. The war has been a fiasco and he desperately wants out. As a result, Iran knows they have time on their side. They apparently believe—rightly, I suspect—that they can wait out his ultimata and the longer the negotiation goes on the better the terms they will get. This recognition has, in fact, been the tipping point in the war. Trump felt he could bomb and they would capitulate to all his terms…but then failed to realize that with every passing day that did not happen, their position grew stronger. Further, Iran has cannily sought to wage an economic war in response to a military attack. They have used their control over the Strait of Hormuz as a potent source of leverage over global markets. Trump can bomb them. They can push up oil prices and push down market results in ways that Trump’s GOP cannot survive. And they know it. And they know sooner or later investors will get wise to Trump’s lies designed to manipulate market results. In fact…

• Iran is Winning the Information War—The reality is that one of the most mendacious and despicable regimes in history (I mean the Iranians in this case), has been given by Trump a gift that only he could give. In some respects, it may be worth more to them than anything Trump can offer at the negotiating table. They have had some of their credibility restored. Not all of it, of course. They remain deeply untrustworthy. But their opponent in this war is one of history’s greatest liars. As a consequence…and the list of Trump promises and assertions at the outset of this column illustrate the problem…nearly two months into this conflict, no one with any sense takes anything seriously that the U.S. president or the White House or the Trump Administration says. When Trump was declaring the Strait of Hormuz open this last Friday, the reaction among diplomats and business leaders and experts I spoke to was, let’s wait for confirmation from the Iranians. The smart ones among the well-informed don’t believe anything unless both sides say it and actions confirm it. But the point is this, Iran, a pariah state, now has more of an ability to influence the narrative around this conflict than they should have and that is entirely Trump’s fault. The fact, that Trump and Netanyahu started this without provocation, even as negotations seemed to be making progress, and that thus they yet again proved they could not be trusted, did not help. The fact, that Trump offered multiple explanations for going into the war and then contradicted them many times over, did not help. The fact that Trump has ranted and used rhetoric that is vile and confirmed his predisposition to being a war criminal, did not help. The fact, that Trump’s spokespeople also lie and some of them like Pete Hegseth or J.D. Vance are now viewed as public laughingstocks, did not help. On top of all this, Iran has, rather remarkably, won the meme wars in social media. Whereas Trump offered video game imagery, the Iranians made merciless fun of Trump via their statements, social media posts from their embassies around the world and via their LEGO videos that have been scathing and often hilarious in their takedowns of Trump and Trump world. And then, of course, Trump decided to get into a side conflict with one of the most beloved and respected people on the planet—the Pope—and once again, in so doing, undercut the U.S. It is probably fair to say that at no point in American history has our crediblity been so low—and we have a long history of lies and deceptions including some real whoppers.

• America Continues to Confuse Military Spending with True Strength—Trump and Hegseth repeatedly tout the U.S. military has being the strongest the world has ever seen. They celebrate the quality of our kit—our planes and ships and missiles and space technologies—and the immense sums spent on training our forces. And in so doing, they are falling into a trap that has undone American leaders for decades. There is no doubt that the U.S. spent trillions upon trillions more on military capabilities than any other nation in history. Indeed, we have during recent decades spent more on men and materiel than all our adversaries and potential adversaries and a bunch of our allies added up. But, as we have proven again and again, you can have the ability to destroy the entire planet many times over or win a multi-theater global war and still not have the ability to change an entrenched regime or defeat asymmetric foes or (see above) to win hearts and minds. That is why the very biggest most expensive military in the world has had so many prominent failures during our lifetimes. Not only have we failed to win in Vietnam or in multiple wars in the Middle East or in Afghanistan but we have spent trillions and failed to eradicate terrorists or make the world a safer place than it was before. Think of our military as a guy who goes to the best gym in the world and works out all day every day and ends up with 52” biceps. Looks real strong. The problem is he can’t move his arms. We could do real damage in a global thermonuclear war but no one wins in that scenario. We have 11 carrier battle groups and massive ground forces and bases worldwide but we have seen time and again that they while they can score tactical victory after tactical victory they can’t actually produce the long-term political outcomes or achieve the long-term stability we seek. Add to that the fact that a huge amount of our spending goes into legacy systems that have not adapted to modern forms of conflict with adequate speed, much of it goes to support dubious or obsolete objectives and, perhaps most importantly, America’s political leaders and its people do not have the political will to fight long, drawn out, costly, often unpopular wars. The result is that while we have a great military and it is unlikely anyone will attack the continental U.S. directly (which is a good thing, to be sure), we keep tripping over our jingoism in our efforts to flex our muscles worldwide. It doesn’t help, of course, that the president doesn’t understand anything about military history or doctrine or geopolitics or, well, almost anything. And he ignores advice and disdains experts. So, he draws on his own very limited and frankly, twisted, ideas of conflict which are, as it happens drawn largely from the WWE matches that he is so fond of. In those, the big blustering steroidal good guy usually wins. And so he thinks that’s the way things play out in real life. (It’s unlikely anyone told him or that he figured out that all those matches are scripted…fake news.)

• China is Playing a Much Bigger Role in This War Than Most Acknowledge—The other day, Trump revealed much about what is motivating him these days with a Truth Social post in which he touted imminent victory in the Iran War and turned his attention to his upcoming meeting with President Xi of China. He promised a “historic” outcome to his visit. The visit, scheduled for a few weeks from now, has been the number one international item on Trump’s dance card for 2026. Trump loves power and recognizes that the one leader in the world who truly rivals his power is Xi. He craves doing business with Xi as a “peer.” He feels it is one way to establish a real legacy and frankly, in the innermost workings of his lizard brain, it is a chance to get the approval from a power figure he never got from his parents and, at the same time, to flash some of the name brand recognition that he seeks as validation in everything. It is one of the main reasons he wants the war over soon. What he probably does not recognize is the number of ways China has been central to what is going on in this war otherwise. In fact, it is a sign of China’s power and geopolitical deftness that their impact on this conflict has been so big and so subtle. China, of course, depends on oil and gas from the region more than the U.S. does. They are one of the two leading consumers of the energy resources that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump may have thought this would lead the Chinese to pressure the Iranians to end the war quickly. Some pundits have even suggested Trump’s blockad of the blockade was a clever move to get China on the US side. Nonsense. First, there is absolutely no way the U.S. would fire on a Chinese ship going in or out of the strait. It would be insanely escalatory even for Trump. Further, it would damage the chances for a good meeting with Xi. In fact, concerns about the impact of the war on energy prices in places like China led Trump’s Treasury to lift sanctions on Iranian oil. They promised to reinstate those the other day and then, at the last minute, did not. Why? (Aside from the fact that the Treasury sanctions policies during this war have been designed to benefit primarily Russia, China and, weirdly, Iran.) Note however that amid all this, far from putting pressure on Iran to settle, China has been helping Iran resupply its military needs, enabling Tehran to play the waiting game with the US. China has also taken Iran’s side in multilateral institutions—in part, according to diplomats familiar with the situation—because Beijing was so outraged at Trump’s threats of wiping out Iranian civilization. China is a key reason Iran can play the long game. China also has massive influence throughout the region which it has been exercising through quiet diplomacy. It is the number one or number two trading and investment partner of virtually every country with any involvement in the conflict. As the US reduces its influences by ending aid flows, China’s grows. Who is the mediator in current negotiations? Pakistan, one of Chinese closest friends in the world, home to the largest Chinese embassy anywhere and recipient of tens of billions of dollars of Chinese investment. Finally, on top of all this, the energy disruptions caused by this war—the largest ever—have got all the world thinking about investing more on alternative energy sources and EVs. China is the world leader in providing both and their gains are amplified by the fact that Trump has been pursuing a dangerously pro-fossil fuel agenda in the US, cutting back on support for alternative energy and EVs…just as he is taking actions that increase that demand. So, again, they will come out of this in multiple ways with more influence than they had before…and that is even before we take into consideration the destruction Trump has done to America’s standing and to our most important alliances. Among the big winners of this war and among the most influential factors in shaping its outcome, don’t forget China.

• A Geopolitical Reset is Taking Place Faster Than Trump Can Understand It—China is a good example of what’s happening. Every day Trump is in office, China gains relative to the U.S. We cut back on investment in science? They gain. We cut back on foreign students coming here to study? They gain. We cut back on aid programs? They gain. We cut back on investments in green energy? They gain. We undermine our alliances? They gain. We attack democracy and international institutions and global stability? They gain. They are now seen by many as a more stabilizing force. They are leading in much of AI and many new technology areas. While we continue to view the world through a distorted, unproductive “cold war” lens, others recognize interdependence with China is the only constructive path forward. Many of those recognizing this are our allies. (See the Spanish PMs recent trip to Beijing to strengthen ties…partially in response to Trump’s attacking those ties in a fit of pique over Spanish opposition to his illegal war in Iran. But virtually all our European allies are following in this path as are many in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas.) The Europeans are also rapidly working on plans to be less dependent on the U.S. for their own security. So too are nations in other parts of the world. While this is largely a positive trend, it cannot be denied that it will dramatically reduce U.S. influence in the years to come…and it is likely to reduce revenues of U.S. defense and critical systems providers because countries everywhere do not know whether they will ever be able to rely on the U.S. again as they once did. The war is not yet two months old but the fact is government after government and companies worldwide are actively planning for a very different kind of future. These relationships and our influence may well be casualties of this war…but ending it will not lead to immediate healing. Even big defeats for MAGA in this year’s elections and in 2028 won’t do it because countries just don’t know whether America’s far right will return to power and reintroduce Trumpist chaos.

My bet is that Trump will end this war on terms that will be less good than either where we were on February 27 or than those we had as part of the prior Iran nuclear agreement that Trump tore up. He will try to do it as soon as he can although the path to that peace is likely, of course, as with everything Trump, as with everything to do with this misbegotten conflict, to be very messy at times.

In the end, however, he will lie about the nature of the agreed upon outcome and declare it a victory. (Again.) And the result will not be a stable peace…with the costs to the region and the world remaining high for a long time to come. But he will try very hard to turn the page.

That said, the issues outlined above that are playing a big role in how this conflict plays out will continue to be important…indeed, they will very likely be increasingly important…going forward.

As long as Trump is president, America will be seen as weaker and as lacking credibility. Rather than restructuring the military, Trump and Hegseth will try to push forward with more steroidal, wasteful, irrational, spending, diverting resources from investment in the real sources of our strength, need and future security. China will continue to gain every moment Trump is president…and whenever Trump meets with Xi, you will see evidence of this in the optics and the outcomes of those meetings. And the geopolitical tectonic shift currently underway in the world will continue, weakening the U.S. and making it very difficult for America to regain its accustomed leadership role for many years and likely decades to come.