This Year's October Surprises Started in June

Don't Expect Them to Stop Anytime Soon

As shocking as the events set in motion by the Biden-Trump debate, perhaps the most astonishing fact associated with it is that it only took place five weeks ago. But since that event on June 27 twists, turns, shockers and unprecedented developments have occurred without interruption.

Journalists used to expect the dog days of summer to be headline free. Even summers that might see political party conventions in recent years had to endure their crushing predictability.

But let’s look at the last five weeks. Biden’s debate meltdown. The controversy over whether he should remain on the ticket. The assassination attempt against Donald Trump. More controversy about whether Biden should stick it out. Controversy regarding how the Secret Service failed to do their job protecting Trump. Trump’s disastrous VP pick. Headlines every time JD Vance opened his mouth or past statements of his would float up. Naive journalists who thought Trump was a “new man.” An RNC that proved he was not. The popularity of fake ear bandages as the MAGA fashion accessory of the summer. Biden’s decision to drop out. Biden’s endorsement of Harris. Harris’ miraculous nomination by acclamation. Harris setting fund-raising records. Harris inspiring record numbers of volunteers. Harris getting her remarks pitch perfect from the day she assumed leadership of the party through comments after the Netanyahu visit though speech after speech. A flawless VP search among a group of stellar VP candidates. Continuing fighting in Gaza. F-16s arriving in Ukraine. Tensions on Israel’s northern border. The assassination of a top Hamas leader in Iran. Bracing for Iran’s response. A shock to global stock markets.

And that, more or less was the past month.

This week will see a Dem VP pick and while it seems that all the choices are likely to popular with the vast majority of Dems (and a growing number of Republicans and Independents who want nothing to do with Trump), there will still be a roll out of the new ticket all week. More rallies. More fund-raising. More energy. And then starting on the 19th there will be the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. And there will be more racism from Trump and more misogyny from Vance and who knows what kind of wild life it will turn out Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. found alongside the road or what he did with it.

And then we will be in the home stretch of the election. And if you have not gotten the message of this column yet, here it is: In 2024 expect the unexpected. The status quo is a marked man. What is likely to differentiate each days news is not whether there are shocks but what the nature of each days shocks are. Here are some options that seem likely:

• On-going flare ups in the Middle East. Netanyahu is the x-factor. He does not want the war to end. He wants Trump to win in November. He has no strategy. He just has bad impulses and dangerous associates. It is unlikely the brutality is going to stop anytime soon. How do I know? Well, recent history, the history before that, the history before that…and the fact that Netanyahu wants the US to promise that even if there’s a ceasefire he can continue to periodically attack Hamas in Gaza. Which, you may say, does not sound very much like a ceasefire. But it sure does sound a lot like a Netanyahu “ceasefire.”

• More market volatility. If there is more economic data that makes markets skittish you will have more days like today (Monday). And if that happens it might trigger something else unusual, a rethink and a policy shift from the Fed. Unlikely…but perhaps not as unlikely as Bibi agreeing too and then fully honoring a ceasefire.

• While we’re looking at the rest of the world, expect continued dust-ups in the contest seas around China, expect more horrific attacks against Ukraine by the Russian army, expect more surprising Ukrainian victories. And while these developments trigger predictable reactions from the Putin-loving GOP ticket (you heard Trump over the weekend congratulating his buddy Vlad on a “successful” hostage negotiation) the headlines will be seen by the press on a regular basis as an opportunity to search for differences between Biden and Harris foreign policy (even though though Biden remains president until late January).

• Will there be disinformation attacks from Putin and his minions like Elon Musk? Yes! (Will Musk be prosecuted by State Attorneys General for his shenanigans? We can only hope so!)

• Will there be controversy over the debate? You betcha. Because Trump is and should be terrified of debating Harris. In fact, one of the big stories of September might just be the way he tries to weasel his way out of doing any debate at all. (Though my guess is in the end he will give in because he will be falling behind and he will need all the visibility he can get.)

• Will Trump and Vance stoop real real low and introduce made up racist, sexist, fabricated oppo slurs against Vice President Harris and the Dem ticket? Of course. That’s what they do. It’s who they are. It’s what they learned in the cesspool they crawled out of.

• A Trump trial or two are almost certain to make news despite the best efforts of the Supreme Court, Aileen Cannon, and Trump-y judges everywhere to ensure he is not held accountable. Judge Tanya Chutkan is not playing. Neither will be the judges in New York. His federal election interference case and NY sentencing will require his attention, his presence and may offer a few shockeroos.

• Could Trump fall so far behind that he contemplates dropping out? Sure. Or could he start inciting violence and massive groundless lawsuits to disrupt the elections? Sure. He’s going to be losing. He’s going to be desperate. He behaves like a lunatic in the best of times. Trust me: the next 90 days will not be the best of times for Donald Trump.

Do you have other surprises you expect? Share them in the comments.