The Invisible Electorate and Other Big Stories Many are Missing

Including One That Is Much, Much Bigger Than the US Elections?

With ten days to go until the election, it is hard not to be mesmerized by polls and punditry. Hard that is, unless you are like me and need a new word to express your true feelings about campaign coverage. Boredangry? Skeptisgusted?

We know many of the polls are hack confections designed to shape rather than reflect views of the impending choice(s) we face. We know that many of the pundits are trapped by the roles they play on TV or the need to stick to the narratives they have been peddling for fear of being revealed as having been wrong. (There will be plenty of time for that on election night and in the days that follow.)

Personally, as I note below, I think the polls and the pundits are wrong but that’s just because most of them are most of the time. That said, quite apart from whether they are right or wrong, I fear we are so into the sportscast of Election 2024 that there is little time for analysts anywhere to actually address other stories of consequences or do anything thoughtful big picture analysis.

So, here are a few capsule perspectives on what I consider stories worthy of more consideration or coverage.

• The Invisible Electorate

  Remember as far back as 2022 when many polls failed to pick up on the level of fury among American women about the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade? Polls are skewed by past results and voting patterns. They miss big behavioral changes among voters precisely because their models make it impossible for them to see it. If some group traditionally doesn’t vote, they get underweighted or ignored by pollsters. It’s also true that if a voter adopts a view they don’t feel comfortable discussing that doesn’t show up. High turn out among women and women choosing to cross party lines but not wanting necessarily to discuss it with friends, family or pollsters both combined to produce misleading 2022 poll results. This year, I think we’re seeing…or rather not seeing…the same thing. My guess is that anger over Roe has grown and not subsided and the fact that Trump and Vance are the most anti-woman ticket in history (running against a super accomplished and charismatic woman) will produce a similar result only moreso. Pollsters trying to determine whether 2024 will produce the Biden coalition or the Trump coalition or the Obama coalition are not seeing the turnout among motivated women, Republican cross-over voters, younger voters and voters of color that will comprise the Harris coalition.

• The Myth of Trump’s Support for the Jews

  On the CNN Town Hall on Wednesday, Anderson Cooper asked Kamala Harris about the belief that allegedly some have that Trump is better on “Jewish” issues like support for Israel than she is. Harris, married to a Jew, shot this down easily. That said, the myth persists. Why? Because there has been a concerted effort for years on the part of the right wing in Israel and in the United States to suggest that if you don’t support Israel’s right wing government’s actions then you don’t support Israel. This is preposterous. Many of us loved and supported America even when Trump was president despite disagreeing with him vehemently on the vast majority of issues. What Harris did not do, though I kind of wish she had, was to say, “What? Are you asking whether I am as good for Jews as a lifelong fan of Adolf Hitler?” Trump has embraced both Nazis and anti-Semitic tropes, anti-Jewish conspiracy theories and actions by the Israeli government that are profoundly bad for both Israel and for America’s interests in the Middle East. He would be a disaster for the Jews. And if you still don’t believe it, go back to the video tape and watch him as he argues that if he loses this election the people his supporters should blame are…the Jews.

• The True Dangers of Musk

  If you read one newspaper article today, let it be "Elon Musk's Secret Conversations with Vladimir Putin." It is a timely and shocking reminder that Musk is one of the world’s most dangerous people. Not only is he trying to buy the U.S. presidency like just another asset to add to his portfolio but he intends to use it, as he has Twitter/X to impose his interests and values on the world…while all the while becoming ever richer and more powerful. It is no surprise that he is close to Putin. The frequency of their reported conversations should be disturbing however, as should be reports that Putin asked Musk to deny Starlink service to Taiwan as a favor to China. (Remember he provided such service to Ukraine and then withdrew it in a way that benefited Putin.) Do not underestimate the impact of Musk and Putin coordinating their efforts on Trump’s behalf (or on behalf of any political agenda) either—the two together are the world’s premier disinformation partnership. Trump too brags of his communications with Putin and the closeness of this trio should sends chills running up and down your spine. Enemies of democracy and of the rule of law, they are parasite oligarchs (if Musk isn’t the world’s richest man, Putin probably is) who want to reimpose the rule of the few over the many. And…and…and…why the hell is the U.S. government subsidizing to the tune of billions a man like Musk who is in bed with our worst enemies? Why does he have defense contracts? Seriously…can you imagine if Lockheed said, oh yeah, Putin’s on our board of directors?

• The Trump-MAGA Bund

  If you read two articles today, why not try this real corker (by me) called “Will Donald Trump Go Full Fascist at Madison Square Garden?” In it, I raise the question of whether Trump’s decision to do a rally this Sunday at Madison Square Garden will inadvertently guarantee that his fascism is a central issue in the campaign during its final days. Why? Because the rally echoes an infamous Nazi gathering that took place at Madison Square Garden 85 years ago. That one featured much of the language and many of the intentions of the MAGA movement today and now, thanks to Trump’s weird decision to do a rally in a city that hates him (because it knows him best) we won’t be able to erase those those parallels from our mind.

• When Systems Break Down

  This is a half developed thought in my mind, but I thought I would share it. Thinking about the excesses of our own era—including the takeover of the GOP by a handful of billionaires…of many other countries by similar groups…they influenced wielded by an ever-more powerful, ever-wealthier elite among elites—it strikes me that it follows a familiar patter that occurs within many systems (although perhaps never before seen on such a global scale). Greed and ambition drive those with much to continuously seek more and the more they have the more impunity they sense they have to ignore norms or laws or the will of the society around them. They do this until their power plays becomes so excessive that ultimately the societies they are exploiting or seeking to dominate react and ultimately, reign them in. It happens sometime in financial markets (remember the 1980s) or within national economies (remember the robber barons leading to the trustbusters) or within national political structures (remember the Magna Carta or any of a hundred hundred revolutions.) We should not take too much comfort in the fact that systems or collective action ultimately reign these people in because often it takes a very long time, often their abuses along the way are painful for many, and often bringing them down requires violent upheaval. All that said, I do think we are in perhaps the most extreme such period we’ve ever seen—in terms of the wealth of those exploiting the system, in terms of their power and in terms of the scope of their greed, ambition and already acquired power.

So, you know, on that note…have a nice weekend. (But remember, our election is a crucial part of the effort of this small global oligarchy to consolidate and expand their power and your vote may be one of the few remaining peaceful ways we have of reining them in.