The End of the Age of Stupidity

Go Ahead and Visualize the Biden Win in November--It's Important to Understand What Comes Next

Human beings--being humans--periodically go through eras of intense dumbness. A lot of us are idiots. Even many of the smartest of us are capable of moments of embarrassing ass hattery.

History is peppered with examples. There’s the great Tulip Bulb Mania in 17^th Century Holland, of course.  https://amsterdamtulipmuseum.com/pages/part-4-tulip-mania  Also back then in the Middle Ages and the Renaissance, people periodically thought it was good fun to burn cats because they saw them as agents of the devil. https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/ritualistic-cat-torture-was-once-a-form-of-town-fun

Some did not come to fruition. Like the plan to drain the Mediterranean and use some of the water to irrigate the Sahara. https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/the-bonkers-reallife-plan-to-drain-the-mediterranean-and-merge-africa-and-europe There was the Edsel. And we even once had a president who thought it would be a good idea to drop nuclear weapons into hurricanes and to shoot bleach into our veins as a way to fight disease.

These last two examples bring us closer to the point.

I know this is going to be hard for some of you because we must never dare contemplate good things happening. (Knock wood. Spit, spit.) But I believe we are about to exit one of the great chapters in the long, undistinguished history of human stupidity when, in November, the stupidest president in American history and the stupidest movement in U.S. history are soundly defeated at the polls.

Yes, polls are tight. No, you’re right, this is no time for complacency. But just as it makes perfect sense to prepare for the possibility that Trump might win and undertake to systematically destroy American democracy, it is equally important that we consider and ready ourselves to take advantage of the even more likely alternative scenario in which we in America regain our senses.

Why Biden and the Democrats Will Win in November

There are plenty of reasons to believe that this latter, infinitely better, outcome will occur. First, Donald Trump is bad at elections. He has never won a popular vote. There is no reason to believe he will do so this time. Further, since a flukey first rise to power in 2016 due to the perversity of our electoral system, Trump and the GOP have had a downright lousy record at the polls. In 2018, 2020 and 2022 and in special elections they have consistently underperformed.

There are plenty of reasons to think that track record will continue in 2024. One of the main reasons for recent GOP defeats has been public outrage at Trump and MAGA championing the stripping away of the fundamental human right of women to control their own bodies. Trump and MAGA are running on their hugely unpopular position again in an election year in which many feel women’s votes will be decisive.  Another reasons that the GOP has done poorly is they have run terrible candidates. Once again, their roster of poster children for moronic hateful incompetence is long and cringeworthy. (I don’t have time go into detail on that here. Trump is, of course, a good example. Then there is NC GOP nitwit Mark Robinson (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/nc-gubernatorial-candidate-mark-robinson-has-said-some-shitty-things-about-domestic-violence-and-sexual-assault). Or take a look at GOP Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/19/bernie-moreno-ohio-senate-primary/) or look again at Kari Lake or the multiple candidates who don’t even live in the states or districts in which they are running.)

Polls that show the race being tight are very likely wrong. This is because polls have been overcounting for Republicans for a while now (see recent election cycles.) Further, recent polls show President Biden gaining strength. (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-major-gains-crucial-voting-group-first-debate-trump-poll) And why not? Trump is, after all, courts have recently determined that Trump is a felon, a rapist and a fraudster. Historians have rated him the worst president in our history. (https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/presidents-survey-trump-ranks-last-biden-14th) And that’s to say nothing of the fact that he is a serial liar, was twice impeached, supported our foreign enemies, oversaw a disastrously bad response to COVID that led to hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths in the US, and achieved nothing during his time in office except a tax cut that only benefitted the rich. Dozens of his former top aides refuse to support him. He is accused of stealing national secrets. And his brain is turning to porridge. (Sharks, batteries…you know the story.)

Further, and this is not unimportant, Joe Biden has been an excellent president, has achieved more than any other president in 60 years, has the U.S. economy leading the world, is a better debater than Trump and his campaign has much more money than Trump’s does.

Imagine the Instant Trump Realizes He Has Lost

So, it’s perfectly reasonable to assume that at some point, perhaps late on election night, perhaps earlier than everyone expects, the media will declare Biden the president and, in all likelihood, announce that Democrats have retaken the House of Representatives from the control of the MAGA GOP.

Go ahead. Allow yourself to contemplate that instant in which Trump realizes that his long con is over and that all he has to look forward to are trials and very possibly, jail time.  The MAGA geniuses who slithered onto his team will all of a sudden see that they sold their souls (such as they were) for nothing. Trump’s political magic was just another one of his scams. Further, we won’t have to endure long analysis about what we will be losing with the defeat of the MAGA movement (hard to imagine anyone writing a wistful story considering the Matt Gaetz or Lauren Boebert who might have been).

There will no doubt be a few die hards, akin to the Japanese soldiers who did not know World War II was over and who remained ready to fight while living in tiny Pacific island caves. Somebody will organize a pontoon boat parade featuring tattered Trump flags on the Lake of the Ozarks. But it will all be appropriately pathetic and fleeting.

The big question, however, is then what?

Major changes are in store for U.S. politics.  We will not only have to figure out what replaces the MAGA GOP but Democrats will also begin a generational change. Almost immediately after Biden wins, the party will see people positioning for 2028. It’s a sad fact. As one likely presidential candidate said to me a few weeks ago, when presented with the fact that the unity driven by the necessity of beating Trump will give way to competition and even in-fighting, “Yes. We will become Democrats again.” Rising stars will gain an instantly more important role—and I include on the Democratic side of this equation, Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom, Wes Moore, Gina Raimondo and Pete Buttigieg. Who will lead the GOP? I have no idea. One smart former member of Bush’s team suggested to me the most likely next standard bearer would be Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, representing the not-insane, with his likely rival being J.D. Vance, representing those without principles or functioning grey cells.

The Real Divide in U.S. and Global Politics

No point in getting into the horse race now. The bigger question is what ideas will dominate in the new environment?  What will we talk about when it is no longer Trump trials or his agenda of hate? Could it be that we will recognize that Joe Biden, as president, has actually ushered in major new ideas about how we should manage our economy (placing Main Street ahead of Wall Street for the first time in forty or so years)?

Or might we recognize that the debate throughout those forty years of growing inequality in America we have also seen an attempt by the super empowered rich in our society to increase their grip on power in our country, that we will come to understand that the Age of Stupidity was just a chapter in the longer and more important story of the Age of Greed?

Might we finally come to see that Trump was just an expedient vehicle chosen by an oligarch dominated right wing in the U.S. to advance their goals when it comes to weakening our government in order to better line their pockets, assume control of institutions (like the Supreme Court over which they will continue to exert great power), and everywhere possible support their agenda of strengthening minority rule in America?

While the big election win Democrats are likely to enjoy in November will allow us to enjoy a momentary sigh of relief, make no mistake, big threats will remain. The useful idiots may be gone but those who cynically embraced them to grow even richer and more powerful will remain a potent force in U.S. politics (and linked to a global right wing movement that shares their goals.) The next manifestation of their efforts may not be as moronic as the last, may not convey its racism or misogyny quite so prominently in its message, but it will continue to advocate for anything that continues to perpetuate the lie that if you leave everything to the markets and you reduce as much as possible the role of government, life will ultimately be better for everyone. (Especially if what government there is is controlled by them.)

Once again, we will see that the dividing line in U.S. politics is not as it is portrayed in the media or even as it is described by many political leaders. It is not Biden vs Trump or Democrats vs MAGA, just as it was not Reagan vs. Mondale or Bush vs. Gore. It is something much deeper that touches issues so weighty and charged that few people dare speak its real name.

The central divide in the U.S. and in many other nations worldwide is democracy versus capitalism…and that will become clearer than ever in the wake of this November’s election.

(To be continued…right here at “Need to Know” tomorrow and in the days ahead…and, frankly, probably for a long time to come.)