The American Century Ended Gradually and then Suddenly

R.I.P America the Superpower

The United States is in the midst of a national security crisis. It is equivalent to what we might expect during a global war in which we were losing. Our role in the world, our interests internationally and at home, are in grave jeopardy.

In 1838, a 29 year-old Abraham Lincoln anticipated the origins of this crisis when he said in a speech in Springfield, Illinois, "At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide."

He was right.

We are being attacked from within. Further, the attack is as sweeping as it is sudden. All of the sources of our strength, all of the engines of our growth are being systematically dismantled. Further, what damage is being done as a result of a strategic plan—be it that of Project 2025, a decades-long right wing movement or of Vladimir Putin—nearly all of it is being substantially aggravated by the ignorance and recklessness of those implementing it. Further it is being enabled by the complicity of the entire Republican Party, many major American institutions, the nation’s legacy media and even some weak-kneed, short-sighted so-called leaders in the Democratic Party.

The Pillars Of Our Strength Eroded

The forces driving America’s ascendancy over the past two hundred and fifty years are manifold. They include economic dynamism, the establishment of strong, effective institutions of governance, the stability afforded by a generally consistent and reliable system of laws, a culture that has increasingly, seeking to overcome deep flaws, promoted progress and increasing opportunity for all, and a consequent ability to attract many of the world’s most talented people to live and work within our borders.

In addition to helping us to develop the necessary military strength required to defend ourselves and our interests worldwide, these factors and a slow but steady realization among the majority of the American people that our fate is in many ways tied to events and interests in the world at large have enabled us to emerge as a true global leader. Central to this—what I have in earlier columns referred to as one of our great superpowers—has been the trust we have engendered among our allies and the concurrent message to our enemies and rivals that we would dependably abide by our words and our principles.

Our economic and foreign policy leadership have depended upon the faith in us, our word, that has been developed over generations. It is the reason that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. It is the reason that our Treasury’s debt instruments have been seen as the world’s most secure investment vehicle. It is the reason that we have been able to forge alliances that are the envy of our rivals, the strongest in the world, our greatest foreign policy asset.

Related to the trust—which is as tied up in living up to our word as it is to generally sound decision-making—are two other important factors. One is the quality of the foundations that were laid by those who first established the country—sound ideas if manifested in sometimes imperfect documents—that emphasized above all else government by, for and of the people, a guarantee of fundamental rights and an ability to regularly revisit and revise those ideas and documents for the better. Another is the idea that we saw benefit in being seen as a contributor to global public goods—not because we were unusually good-hearted, but rather because we saw that such a stance would advance our interests, draw people to us, undermine our enemies and rivals and promote global peace and prosperity.

Now go back and re-read the three preceding paragraphs. Because every single one of those factors that have contributed to America’s rise as a superpower, as the leading nation of the free world, and as an ever more desirable place in which to live and work—every single one of them—has been actively undermined and in some cases obliterated by the actions of the Trump Administration in its first 100 days.

While discussions have taken place and books have been written about American decline for many decades, the change in our status and in the nature of our government has been shockingly swift.

The conditions that created this moment were not, of course, created overnight. Constantly growing economic inequality has been a cancer on our society. Political division within our society has led to a 21st Century America that has been rightly seen by the world to be schizophrenic, yawing from the bullying unilateralism of Bush 43, to the leading from behind fecklessness of Obama, to the gated-community, racism, greed and corruption-driven incompetence of Trump 1.0 to the uneven internationalism of Biden and then back to Trump 2.0, a dramatically worse version of the man who was already seen by historians as the worst president in our history. As a society, I would argue that we followed the sacrifices associated with building America into what was characterized in the days after the fall of the Soviet Union as the “hyperpower”—the last great nation standing—with a generation of leaders from Clinton through today who largely took our greatness for granted or misunderstood the sources of that greatness or were unable or unwilling to do what was necessary to support or advance it. (And plenty of that responsibility falls on a generation of American voters who have taken our global status for granted for so long that they stopped valuing it or how it came to be.)

Gradual and the Suddenly

But the slow decline that has come from the conditions and, I would argue, degradation of our national character of the past forty or so years, has been dramatically accelerated and amplified in the past three months.

We who built the international trading system have sought in a series of dramatic, sometimes contradictory, and deeply unsettling moves to obliterate it. We upon whom the world could depend for relatively consistent economic leadership have apparently lost our economic minds. The president has openly called for an end to an independent federal reserve. He has promoted scam cyber-currencies. He has taken steps to greatly increase our already much too high national debt through seeking further tax cuts for the rich.

The light unto nations that we once were or aspired to be has been switched off. We have made it certain that we will no longer attract talented students, workers or visitors from around the world. We will therefore destroy one of the great advantages we had in the global economy. This status is not just undermined by draconian, irresponsible, inhumane and illegal immigration practices, it has also been undercut by our swift slide into being a police state and the attempted erasure of fundamental freedoms and rights. Free speech? The right to due process? The products of decades long efforts to increase opportunities for all American regardless of gender, race, religion, sexual orientation or other factors that have led to discrimination? All attacked. All gone or going or in doubt.

The president views himself as a king. No one in his own party is willing to challenge his abuses. Democracy in America, the great legacy of our founders, is in greater jeopardy than it has been at any time since 1776. That is just an unassailable fact.

But so too is our international standing under siege. Critical alliances are being torn apart by the words and actions of the Trump team. We have switched sides from our role among the pro-democracy, pro-rule of law forces in the world to join the ethno-nationalist authoritarian alliance of autocrats and would-be strongmen from Putin to Orban to Vucic to Erdogan to Modi to Netanyahu.

We have put grossly incompetent people in charge of the institutions responsible for our national security. As I said in a recent New York Times piece, from my perspective as a historian of the National Security Council, that entity is at a low point of its influence and efficacy since the 1960s. (It was not really an important entity prior to that.) Signalgate illustrates that but so too do blunders within the Defense and State Departments, the elevation of incapable individuals with no foreign policy or national security leadership experience…and some with dubious loyalties.

So too does the series of steps taken to advantage our rivals, notably Russia, at our own expense. One by one agencies within the US government that targeted or tracked or helped respond to the Russian threat have been shutdown or unfunded. The range of such efforts is breathtaking—from the State Department’s shut down of the entity that identified and combatted Russian disinfo, to the shutdown of the DHS department that combatted Russian election interference, to the shuttering of the DoJ group that targeted abuses by Russian oligarchs, to the roll back of DoD capabilities to counter Russian cyber threats to, above all, efforts to weaken NATO and withdraw serious support for the government of Ukraine.

Shutting down USAID has dramatically undercut American power. Pulling out of key international agencies and agreements has done the same.

Ceding Power and Opportunity to Our Enemies and Rivals

Now, according to the New York Times, there is a plan to remake and eviscerate the State Department that would do further damage. While the Secretary of State has taken to social media to say that the Times report is a “hoax,” there is no reason to believe he is telling the whole truth. The Times report discusses what is supposed a leaked draft executive order that would dramatically restructure the State Department. The steps enumerated in the draft executive order include eliminating current regional bureaus and replacing them with four super-bureaus covering larger regions of the world, getting rid of or shrinking all or most programs that promote democracy, international institutions, combat climate change, support women’s issues, and advance U.S. public diplomacy (including previously highly valuable initiatives like those associated with cultural diplomacy and much of what was good about the Fulbright Program).

Might Rubio be right and the document be an inaccurate reflection of the final White House plan to remake the oldest cabinet department, the one responsible for our foreign policy? Sure. Might the document have been a trial balloon? Possibly. But will big changes be coming? Of course. We know that because destroying USAID was already a huge blow to our international interests. We also know that because the White House and many with whom I have spoken in the State Department have spoken about expecting cuts of up to 50 percent of all State Department personnel. We know that because eliminating climate, women’s, DEI, cultural and public diplomacy programs and our involvement in international institutions are all under way.

While the State Department bureaucracy is too large and could use some reorganizing, everything announced, planned or leaked by the Trump Administration is worrisome. Not only will the steps more than likely dramatically reduce our global influence, they will make it much harder for American companies and individuals abroad to have the support of their governments as the companies and citizens of other countries get from theirs. Further, Trump administration steps have already created openings for our rivals like China and Russia to make gains internationally. China is already offering aid programs to replace those once offered by the US—thus strengthening their influence and underscoring how unreliable we have become. One of the steps described in the NY Times article about the draft EO is eliminating or vastly reducing the US diplomatic presence (including many embassies) around the world and especially in sub-Saharan Africa. This is profoundly short-sighted. It will be greeted by toasts and laughter in Moscow and China. It will not only create opportunities for them but it will dramatically reduce the cost of their competition with us.

The America bequeathed to us by the so-called Greatest Generation is no longer. Our leadership has been squandered by the generation of leaders that have followed. It shames me to say that I am a part of that generation. And I beg the many of you who read this who are also part of it to avoid reflexive reactions and recognize what the missteps of the past several decades have produced. While each preceding president and government at large has some things to their credit, while each of the past few decades have seen gains for all Americans of one sort or another, throughout the past four decades—in our moment of greatest apparent triumph and thereafter—serious mistakes have been made.

But whatever those mistakes have been, they have all been compounded many times over by the catastrophe of the past three months, of this one administration. Trump is in some ways a prototype for the rich kid who inherits a great legacy and then squanders it throughout his life, whose character has been warped by the absence of the need for real sacrifice or discipline. We are however, not just the victims of such a damaged man. We elevated him and the his character flaws in many ways reflect those of our nation.

We can only hope that subsequent generations—who like the “Greatest” generations and all those who came before will sadly come to understand the fragility of American greatness, that all we had could be lost overnight—will turn with seriousness of purpose, foresight and willingness to do the hard work required to the business of restoring what has been lost or damaged—gradually over the past few decades and then suddenly during this administration.