Is the NATO Summit a Birthday Celebration or a Going Away Party?

We Know Which Option Our Pro-Putin Presidential Candidate Wants

Dignitaries are gathering in Washington as children are being carried from the rubble of Kyiv’s leading pediatric hospital.

As the U.S. capital is hosting what is intended to be a 75^th Anniversary celebration for NATO, the world’s most potent and important alliance is facing extraordinary challenges. Even as we roll out the red carpet for leaders from both sides of the Atlantic, America is in the midst of an election that pits a pro-NATO political party against opponents who are openly anti-NATO and pro-Putin. If the latter wins in November, everyone recognizes that NATO as we have known it is over, that Russia will have a clearer path to victory in Ukraine and that Moscow will begin to prepare for its next European conquests.

Just as NATO is reaching the apogee of its strength its existence is more precarious than ever thanks to presidential candidacy of Donald Trump and to his zombie supporters in the MAGA GOP.

While the agenda for the week-long meetings in DC is full, it is likely that this core concern and a number of other off-agenda items will dominate the corridor talk and conversations over canapes, coffee breaks and meals at this landmark gathering of the leaders of the Atlantic alliance.

• Heads of state and their teams participating in the event will be seeking clues as to which way the political winds are blowing in the U.S. because they recognize their future security hangs in the balance. Can it be that Trump is leading in so many polls? Does he really have a chance of being reelected despite his record as president last time around, his criminal convictions, and his clear mental decay?

  I know they will be asking these questions because I’ve already had several of them pose the queries to me. And of course, like it or not, they will be scrutinizing the appearance and behavior of Joe Biden to see whether he is up to the task of repelling the threat from Trump and winning in November. Because, if I am honest, that the question of whether Biden is up to it is, these days, the first and primary subject of conversation raised with me by foreign diplomats and officials in the past several weeks. To be honest—and for sure some of you out there in Need to Know Land will not be happy to hear or even discuss this—the questions about Biden, like those about Trump, have been swirling for years now. But for NATO members this is not idle political gossip. The realize that who wins in November will determine not just what kind of future the alliance might have, but whether Europe and the world will be entering a new period of instability driven by insatiable Russian aggression.

• Given the return of Congress this week, the will-he or won’t he debate over Biden’s future will inevitably be a hot topic as senators and congresspeople let their positions be known. My own guess is that, merits of the arguments one way or another aside, Biden will survive this crisis and soldier on as the Democratic candidate. Vice President Harris will play an even bigger role in the campaign and many in the Democratic Party will hope the debate about Biden’s age and fitness will be behind us once and for all. Of course, it won’t be. Because as will be the case this week during the NATO festivities and discussions, Biden’s every footfall and syllable will be under the media microscope from now through election day. Caveat: If he has another significant incident that raises concerns over the next few weeks, we will be right back where we are now and it still could impact the outcome at the Democratic Convention.

• U.S. elections will not, of course, be the only ones dominating conversations around the summit. This will be the first summit attended by new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. He will be widely congratulated, his margin in the Parliament will be commented on, and the fact that the margins of Labour victories were thin and the right did unexpectedly well (even if it did not win many seats), will probably not get the attention they deserve. Similarly, Frances president Emmanuel Macron will no doubt receive some warm handshakes and slaps on the back for having used snap election to quash a threat from France’s Trump-y political right wing. But the results of the second round of voting on Sunday suggest a prolonged period of political gridlock lies ahead as no party has a clear majority and coalition governments are not a French strong suit. (US analysts who have been suggesting the good results for the left in the UK and France are a positive sign for US Democrats are misguided. The analogies are few and tortured and the British and French results are themselves mixed enough to not be truly comforting in ways American observers might hope for.)

• Whether NATO bad boy Viktor Orban makes it to the summit remains to be seen given that he followed up his friendly tete a tete with Vladimir Putin with a surprise visit to Beijing. Orban seems to be trying to do everything he can to remind the world that he’s playing for the other geopolitical team—a fact that has once again won him praise from America’s own pro-Putin cheerleaders, the Trump clan.

• Another topic that will precipitate much heated discussion will be the state of the war in Gaza, the prospects for the war’s expansion to Israel’s north, and the progress that is or is not being made toward a ceasefire. Once again, over the weekend there were more horrific stories of innocent casualties of Israeli strikes in Gaza, a fact that should produce more pressure on Israel but, sadly, is unlikely to given that the world is now tragically numbed to the horrors that are daily suffered by the Palestinian people.

The suffering of the people of Ukraine will be more central to the NATO discussions and an official session focused just on Ukraine is on the agenda. Monday’s Russian guided missile attack on Kyiv’s Ohmadyt Central Children’s Hospital is one of the most shocking war crimes in Russia’s long history of such abuses during their illegal war against their neighbor. The scenes from the hospital and reports of loss are absolutely devastating and will serve as a stark reminder to NATO leaders of the barbarity of Putin and the urgent need to defeat Russia in the current war. Perhaps also this strike will trigger discussions about how NATO can aid in the construction of an even stronger air defense shield over Ukraine. There is no reason why active involvement of NATO members to protect Ukraine from Russian terror from the sky should be precluded from the list of options being discussed. After all, the U.S. and key allies stepped up to defend Israel from Iranian attack. The fight in Ukraine is of even greater strategic importance and the cost of Russian attacks has been so high for so long that new initiatives must urgently be considered and implemented.