I'll Say It Again: The Numbers Don't Add Up for Trump

A Different Kind of Holiday Good News Drawn from Recent Headlines

It is early on Christmas morning. Hanukkah starts later today. Holiday season is in full swing. To all of you I wish health, happiness, prosperity and a great 2025.

I hope that at this time of year you can focus on the joys that family and love or just the thought of the days starting to get longer may bring. Admittedly, not only do all of us have our own personal worries and challenges, but this is a precarious moment for the country and perhaps that too hangs over this season in an ominous way for you.

While you have every reason to be concerned about our next administration in Washington, there are also sound bases to be hopeful. For every bizarre pronouncement or disturbing nominee for high official churned out from the throne room at Mar-a-Lago, there are some solid facts that are being underestimated by many that—if not exactly justifications for optimism, nonetheless should temper your fears. I’ve mentioned some of these before. But they bear repeating especially in light of the fact that a number of them seem even more likely in light of the headlines of the past week or two.

And I will admit, the news in recent days has been even weirder than usual. In the course of a week, Trump suggested the U.S. might have reason to reclaim the Panama Canal and that we must somehow gain control of Greenland. Despite soothing analyses from the likes of CNN that suggested that somehow Trump was just flirting with expansionism, what was really being manifest was the wannabe imperialism that comes of delusions of grandeur when it is mixed with really profound ignorance. Needless to say, neither of these Trumpian delusions will come to pass. But simply the fact that he would float them suggests that he is unmoored from reality in a way that few people who are allowed to wonder freely in society typically are.

Add to that bizarre senior level appointments from Kimberly Guilfoyle to Herschel Walker, dangerous ones from Pete Hegseth to Tulsi Gabbard to RFK, Jr. and the sordid details about Trump’s first choice for attorney general that have been released by the House Ethics Committee and calls for the prosecution of public officials who were merely doing their duty and you have the most ominous transition period to a new administration in the United States that anyone has ever seen.

But here’s the reality as it is also manifesting itself before our eyes:

• Although Elon Musk and Trump sought to engineer a government shutdown or at least draconian cuts in a continuing resolution that had bipartisan support, the real politics of Washington interceded to stop them. Oh, they managed to cut some needed programs and many will suffer as a result of their handiwork, but the government was kept open and many of the biggest cuts they sought were trash canned because they just don’t have enough Republican votes in the House of Representatives to get through their most extreme ideas.

• The razor thin margin in the House is not going to get any better any time soon, either. Which means essentially that unless the proposals by President Musk, ceremonial head of state Trump, and the Billionaire Squad with which they have surrounded themselves in the government will need to have unanimous support to pass. If you think that is possible when virtually all federal spending programs benefit some number of Red congressional districts, then you do not understand how Washington works. Self-interest and seeking to maintain power beats ideology or party loyalty every time.

• Further, as I have mentioned before, every single member of Congress and a third of the Senate are up for reelection in just over 22 months. History says the Democrats are very likely to do very well in the midterms. Which means that Republicans—especially those in purple or other at-risk districts—are going to have to think very hard about every vote they take. What is most likely is that the Congress will therefore continue to be unable to pass a real budget much less massive programs to restructure the government. Moreover, with every month we get closer to the midterms, the likelihood that bold decisive action is possible decreases.

• Surely, you might say, Trump will recognize this and start attacking members of his own party. And to this I say, yes. I will not go so far as to say please pass the popcorn because frankly, dysfunction in DC is not a good thing for the country. On the other hand, if it blocks mischief or worse, it’s better than the alternatives.

• What will also happen, starting in less than a month, is that Trump will start issuing executive orders with wild abandon. These will cause damage. But many will be stopped by the courts. And even should Trump seek to ignore the courts because he has immunity, no member of his cabinet nor anyone else in the government similarly is protected and there are plenty of governors and state legislatures and mayors that will challenge Trumpian decrees. This will slow his plans.

• My prediction therefore is that time and again you will get big Muskian-Trumpian pronouncements followed by only partial delivery of their objectives. Whatever they achieve will likely be damaging and cause harm but it is hard to do much without needed budgetary authority which will be hard to come by in the divided Congress. And with all the other practical and political headwinds they face, you will get actions that end up being 10-20 percent of what Trump, Musk or their gang have promised/threatened. As ever, when Trump promises something will be “yuge” expect it to be much, much smaller in reality.

• Further, although Trump talks a big game about running again, that’s another place he can’t deliver. The Constitution is clear and won’t be overturned. Further, Father Time will not be denied. Trump is old and in bad shape and will decline rapidly due to the pressures of the office. We have seen this movie before. Biden was much fitter but at the same age as Trump will be, we ultimately saw him decline to the point that it was clear to all that he was no longer capable of doing the job. Musk and the Billionaire Boys Club might think they can just turn an elderly Trump into more of a sock puppet than he already will be, but more likely is that over the next four years they fall out with Trump or get what they want and get out of dodge before a Democratic House with investigative authority arrives in DC as is likely in January of 2027 (if not before depending on who stays and who might be forced to leave in the next two years).

• In the same vein, Trump is a terrible institution builder as most narcissists are. He will not be spending the next four years ensuring the GOP is able to produce a strong successor to him. They will have money. But they will also very likely have an on-going internal civil war as different forces seek to lead the post-Trump GOP. It may still be MAGA. It may even be Muskier than before. (Though personally, I doubt that.) But expecting Trump to leave the GOP stronger while he contemplates his own mortality is a sucker’s bet.

• There is further comfort to be derived from the fact that while the incoming administration is showing every sign of being rife with conflicts of interests, there is even something comforting in that. My guess is that Trump and Musk and company are more interested in the financial returns they can generate than in any long-term changes to the US government. Kleptocracy is bad. Growing systemic inequality is worse. But they are likely to prove to be the real game of the administration rather than fascism or obliterating democracy. And once again, the thieves need to beware, the political environment in the US can change suddenly and political karma can be a bitch.

• Further, there have even been some stirrings of life among the Democrats in the opposition. I stand by my earlier assertions that the Blue party is facing a leadership crisis. But I have to say, the way Hakeem Jeffries handled the budget standoff in the days before Christmas was excellent. He was strong and clear and did not give an inch to help the GOP out of their self-inflicted crisis. If he can emerge in this environment as a stronger voice than he has been before, that can be a game changer.

I could go on. But here’s the reality. The numbers don’t add up for Trump. He won the election but not a majority of the votes cast. Most Americans oppose him. The GOP margin in the Senate is thin and Senators have already flexed their muscles to some degree to assert their independence. (Not enough. But more than Trump expected to be sure.) The margin in the House is even slimmer and Mike Johnson may be a MAGA supplicant but he is not a strong Speaker nor is his job secure. Midterm electoral math is likely to be anti-Trump on the House side of the equation at least. So too is 2026 math. The budget math of Musk and Ramaswamy (30 percent cuts) just doesn’t add up. It is impossible to achieve without massive cuts in defense and entitlement spending. (And entitlement cuts are going to be death for those facing 2026 races.) The big immigration round up numbers don’t add up (you can’t round up 10 million people with 1000 ICE enforcement agents or without a budget increase they won’t get.) Trump’s tariffs will likely be less than meets the eye because the markets will largely hate them and plummeting markets and dollar are numbers Trump himself will not like. And the numbers on the actuarial tables do not add up for a strong Trump term either. He will be among the lamest lame ducks we have ever seen for all the reasons cited above.

Further, the math of foreign policy is not likely to go the new administration’s way as enemies and allies alike chart their own course and do not behave as Trump might hope. Don’t expect Putin to do his bidding even as Trump may do Putin’s. Expect our allies to try sweet talk only as long as that works and the minute it does not, count on them getting tough.

This does not mean Trump is not president nor does it mean he will not get some substantial portions of his agenda through. We also should not expect that everything he and the Congress does will not be in the US interests. We could use some budget cuts. (Though it would better with tax hikes.) Trump is likely to ultimately be more transactional with countries like China and that might actually (despite the hawks in his government) result in a more stable great power relationship. Etc.

But what was promised in the campaign or what has been hinted at in midnight posts on Truth Social or X, is just not likely to come to pass. And for those who are counting out the influence of Democrats, doing so would be short-sighted.

Instead, for better and for worse, despite plans to learn from past mistakes, Trump 2.0 is likely to look a lot more like Trump 1.0 than Trump or anyone close to him hopes. That’s not exactly good news. But, we came through that more or less intact before (which is not to minimize the toll of mismanaging COVID) and we will very likely do so again.

And that’s what passes for good news this holiday season in 2025.

Merry Happy, y’all.